Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — February 14, 2026

Four NASA awards totaling $2.3B through 2027-2028 provide long-term funding for OSIRIS-REX, CXO ops, NSROC, and SESDA, with 50-90% outlays in active contracts.

$1.15B in firm-fixed-price awards for new embassies in South Sudan and Mauritius signal multi-year backlog for construction firms through 2028.

Awards to AT&T ($314M DoS telecom), Booz Allen ($68-158M GSA mission support), and small IT firms total ~$600M through 2026-2027.

$447M USAID award for electricity/gas infrastructure through 2029 offers stable revenue despite early-stage outlays ($36M).

Projects in Ukraine, South Sudan, Mauritius expose ~$1.3B to regional instability and firm-fixed-price cost overruns.

Low outlays (0-50% in 9/13 contracts) and long periods (avg 4-6 yrs to 2026-2031) delay revenue recognition; firm-fixed-price exposes $1.1B construction to overruns.

Geopolitical risks in Ukraine ($447M), South Sudan/Mauritius ($836M) amid instability; subawards dilute primes (e.g., $202M/232M in Safeguard).

Re-compete risks post-2026/2028 for 70% of value; small biz set-asides (3 awards) limit large incumbents.

Unexercised options add $700M+ potential (e.g., $190M Global Maritek to $402M, $150M ADNET to $363M).

Small/minority-owned set-asides total $594M (12%), favoring repeated awards in DHS/HHS/NASA.

Follow-ons from embassy/NSROC success and Ukraine resilience could extend $2B+ beyond 2028.

46% of value in long-term R&D/ops (CXO, OSIRIS-REX, NSROC, SESDA) through 2027-2028, with high outlays signaling commitment.

DoS $1.15B embassy builds in emerging markets underscore global footprint growth through 2028.

12% of value via set-asides for CMS/DHS IT/vessel services, with 70%+ outlays.

{"entity"=>"Lockheed Martin", "reason"=>"Two awards total $439M (OSIRIS-REX + PAWSS), 13% outlayed, options + follow-ons potential.", "trigger"=>"Option exercise or NASA extensions >$20M"}

{"entity"=>"AT&T Technical Services", "reason"=>"$314M DoS telecom through 2026, low outlay pace signals ramp-up.", "trigger"=>"Outlays exceed $100M in next quarter"}

{"entity"=>"Global Maritek Systems", "reason"=>"$172-402M DHS vessel maintenance to 2031 potential, small biz with 68% outlayed.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises doubling value"}

{"entity"=>"USAID Ukraine Recipient (undisclosed)", "reason"=>"$447M energy resilience through 2029, early stage but fully obligated.", "trigger"=>"Recipient disclosure or outlays >$100M"}