Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — January 15, 2026

7 NASA contracts total ~$1.65B obligation (e.g., L3Harris $777M potential to 2050, KBR $530M), with 30-70% outlayed indicating execution momentum and options upside.

Two SAIC awards ($130M State + $75M Treasury) carry $547M+$728M potentials via options, targeting cyber/O&M/cloud despite low initial outlays.

$77M FAA + $68M DHS obligations with $471M+$500M ceilings through potential 2032, 25-30% outlayed signaling EIS migration revenue.

11 contracts (42%) firm-fixed (e.g., Walsh $78M FAA tower, ESA $79M VA build) expose to cost overruns amid low outlays (0-15%).

Low outlays vs obligations (e.g., 0% in 4 contracts like Applied Research $403M, AXIENT $57M) signal ramp-up delays over 3-27yr periods.

Subawards dilute revenue (avg 20-50%, e.g., $230M/204 in Applied Research, $144M/138 in L3Harris) creating subcontractor dependencies.

Award-fee/cost-plus (14 contracts) ties ~40% payments to performance evals; firm-fixed (11) risks overruns in inflating construction/IT costs.

Unexercised options total >$3B potential uplift (e.g., SAIC $1.2B+, AT&T $900M+, L3Harris $465M+), exercisable through 2027-2050.

NASA extensions to 2027-2050 (5 contracts) and VA/DOT IT through 2029+ position for follow-ons in space/IT modernization.

Remaining obligations ~$1.5B (e.g., $86M Aerojet, $112M GD IT) for near-term cashflow in 80% executed contracts.

37% value in 7 awards (e.g., GEOXO Imager to 2050, propulsion R&D) underscores multi-decade commitments despite nonprofit recipients.

VA/State/Treasury/DOT awards (~$700M) emphasize cyber/cloud/EIS transitions with SDVOSB set-asides and high ceilings.

VA/FAA/GSA builds ($215M+) for hospitals/towers signal steady execution to 2028 despite firm-fixed risks.

{"entity"=>"L3Harris Technologies", "reason"=>"$1.1B+ NASA exposure (GEOXO + Aerojet) with 2050 horizon and $465M options", "trigger"=>"Option exercises or outlay >50% of $311M obligation"}

{"entity"=>"SAIC", "reason"=>"$205M obligations with $1.3B ceilings in State/IRS IT; 0% outlays signal ramp", "trigger"=>"FY2026 outlays >$50M or extension to 2027-2028"}

{"entity"=>"KBR Wyle Services", "reason"=>"$568M NASA/FAA with 92% Goddard execution but 2022 end date passed", "trigger"=>"Extension confirmations or follow-on awards"}

{"entity"=>"AT&T Enterprises (Tyto Athene)", "reason"=>"$145M DOT/DHS with $971M potentials to 2032; telecom EIS pivot", "trigger"=>"Option uptake pushing obligations >$200M"}