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Mega Contracts Monitor ($100M+) — February 25, 2026

Mega Contracts Monitor ($100M+)

4 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

Four mega contracts totaling $599.8M signal robust federal spending on energy retrofits, Medicare recovery, facilities support, and building modernization, with three bullish awards providing multi-year revenue visibility through 2043. Ameresco's $217M 19-year deal dominates materiality, followed by Performant ($124M) and Grunley ($119M) nearing high outlay milestones. Firm fixed price dominance introduces execution risks, but options add $60M+ upside across winners.

Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Mega Contracts Monitor ($100M+) digest from February 24, 2026.

Investment Signals(4)

  • Long-term energy retrofit revenue for Ameresco(HIGH)

    $217M obligation (base + options $229M) over 19 years via GSA for federal deep retrofits in Region 5.

  • Medicare recovery contract expansion for Performant(HIGH)

    $124M obligated ($165M base+options) from CMS with $80M outlayed and potential extension to 2029.

  • USDA construction near completion for Grunley(HIGH)

    $120M fully obligated with 97% ($116M) outlayed, ending Apr 2026 for DC building modernization.

  • Ongoing NASA facilities support for Alcyon JV(MEDIUM)

    $139M obligated ($146M base+options) with 47% outlayed through Mar 2026 amid high subawards.

Risk Flags(2)

  • Execution[HIGH RISK]

    Firm fixed price structures in three contracts risk cost overruns on long-duration projects amid inflation or delays.

  • Execution[MEDIUM RISK]

    High subawards (56% or $78M via 952 subs) create subcontractor dependency in NASA deal.

Opportunities(2)

  • $60M+ in unexercised options across contracts, plus extensions to 2029/2043.

  • 97% outlay completion enables strong near-term cash flow in Grunley USDA project.

Sector Themes(3)

  • GSA's $217M award underscores National Deep Energy Retrofit Program expansion.

  • CMS $124M commitment to Medicare Secondary Payer services signals ongoing audit demand.

  • NASA ($139M), USDA ($120M) awards highlight steady demand for logistics, support, and construction.

Watch List(3)

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Ameresco Inc.", "reason"=>"Largest award with 19-year horizon dominates period value at 36%.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises adding $12M or retrofit program expansions"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Performant Financial Corporation", "reason"=>"64% outlay on $124M CMS deal with 2+ year extension potential.", "trigger"=>"Performance period extension to 2029"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Grunley Construction Co., Inc.", "reason"=>"Near-completion (97% outlay) offers cash flow visibility to 2026.", "trigger"=>"Final outlays or USDA follow-on awards"}

Get daily alerts with 4 investment signals, 2 risk alerts, 2 opportunities and full AI analysis of all 4 filings

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Mega Contracts Monitor ($100M+) — February 25, 2026 | Gunpowder Blog