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High-Value Federal Grants ($5M+) — April 16, 2026

High-Value Federal Grants ($5M+)

12 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

These 12 high-value federal contracts total $2,556,508,585 in obligations, entirely civilian with 0/12 defense-related, spanning agencies like Department of State, HHS, NASA, USAID, DHS, USDA, DOE, and GSA. Dominant themes include IT facilities management, medical equipment maintenance, aviation support, and space services, with bullish signals from strong outlay execution in maturing awards like AAR Government Services' $449M State contract and Agiliti Health's $327M HHS ventilator maintenance deal. Highest-conviction bullish signal is on Agiliti Health Inc ($326.6M obligation, $272M outlayed, potential to $494M), reflecting HHS preparedness priorities with low execution risk despite firm-fixed pricing. Key risk is high pricing risk from firm-fixed structures in 5+ contracts (e.g., Agiliti, Amentum $227M NASA), vulnerable to cost overruns; watch 2026 contract end-dates like DLH's April 2026 NIH IT award for recompetes.

Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior High-Value Federal Grants ($5M+) digest from April 15, 2026.

Investment Signals(6)

  • AAR Government Services Secures $449M State Aviation Maintenance with $290M Outlayed(HIGH)

    AAR's $449M cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order from Department of State shows strong execution ($290M outlayed, $87M subawards) through option year three, ending May 2024, signaling steady revenue in aircraft repair (NAICS 488190). Potential to $500M supports aviation services growth.

  • Agiliti Health Wins $327M HHS Ventilator Maintenance with $272M Outlayed(HIGH)

    Agiliti Health's firm-fixed-price contract from HHS ASPR obligates $327M (potential $494M) for ventilator/PAPR maintenance, with $272M already outlayed since 2023, extending to 2026-2028 and affirming competitive positioning (NAICS 811210).

  • ABT Global Lands $279M USAID Malaria Vector Control Through 2027(MEDIUM)

    ABT Global's cost-plus-fixed-fee contract from USAID obligates $279M (potential $810M) with $160M outlayed including $64M subawards, providing 5-year revenue visibility in professional technical services (NAICS 541990).

  • DLH Secures $107M NIH IT Management BPA Call with $86M Outlayed(HIGH)

    DLH's firm-fixed-price BPA call from NIH NHLBI has $107M obligated ($86M outlayed) over 5 years to April 2026 for IT facilities management (NAICS 541513), signaling woman-owned capability win.

  • CGI Federal's $620M State Passport Contract Nears 2024 End with Partial Outlays(MEDIUM)

    CGI Federal's $620M time-and-materials delivery order from Department of State (parent Timken Co.) has only $191M outlayed over 6.5 years, with no extension indicated post-May 2024, risking revenue cliff.

  • Axiom Space Gains $100M NASA EVA Demo with $77M Outlayed to 2028(MEDIUM)

    Small business Axiom Space's firm-fixed-price delivery order from NASA JSC obligates $100M (potential $172M) for space vehicle EVA demo (NAICS 336414), with $77M outlayed since June 2023.

Risk Flags(3)

  • Execution[HIGH RISK]

    High firm-fixed-price risk in Agiliti Health's $327M HHS contract and Amentum Technology's $227M NASA facilities maintenance, both with performance to 2026-2028 exposing margins to cost overruns.

  • Competition[MEDIUM RISK]

    Maturing contracts like CGI Federal's $620M State award (ends May 2024) and AAR's $449M (ends May 2024) face recompete uncertainty with no extension signals.

  • Budget[MEDIUM RISK]

    California Dairies' $71M USDA butter contract starts April 2026 with $0 outlayed over 8.5 months, vulnerable to civilian budget shifts in food donations.

Opportunities(3)

  • ABT Global's USAID $279M obligation has $530M in unexercised options to reach $810M potential through 2027 in malaria vector control.

  • Agiliti Health's HHS contract offers extension to February 2028 and options to $494M beyond current $327M obligation.

  • Axiom Space's NASA $100M has $72M unexercised options to $172M for EVA demo through 2028.

Sector Themes(3)

  • Agiliti Health's $327M ventilator maintenance and DLH's $107M NIH IT BPA call show HHS committing $434M+ with high outlays ($272M + $86M), signaling sustained health crisis readiness demand.

  • Amentum's $227M facilities maintenance (to 2026) and Axiom Space's $100M EVA demo (to 2028) total $327M obligated with $217M outlayed, underscoring long-term NASA infrastructure needs.

  • AAR's $449M aviation repair (option year three exercised) and CGI Federal's $620M passport IT total $1.07B, with $481M outlayed despite 2024 ends.

Watch List(5)

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"CGI Federal Inc.", "reason"=>"$620M State contract ends May 2024 with only $191M outlayed; recompete risk.", "trigger"=>"recompete announcement post-2024-05-09"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"AAR Government Services, Inc.", "reason"=>"$449M obligation with $290M outlayed; watch extensions beyond May 2024.", "trigger"=>"modifications or extensions post-2024-05-31"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Agiliti Health Inc", "reason"=>"$327M HHS with $272M outlayed; options to $494M and extension to 2028.", "trigger"=>"option exercises, 2026-08-27 performance end"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"DLH, LLC", "reason"=>"$107M NIH IT ends April 2026 with $86M outlayed; remaining $21M obligation.", "trigger"=>"outlay progress, 2026-04-15 end date"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Amentum Technology, Inc.", "reason"=>"$227M NASA facilities to April 2026; $139M outlayed, firm-fixed risks.", "trigger"=>"2026-04-12 current end, options to $252M"}

Get daily alerts with 6 investment signals, 3 risk alerts, 3 opportunities and full AI analysis of all 12 filings

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