Executive Summary
These 12 civilian contracts total $2,556,508,585 in obligations with 0 defense-related awards, highlighting steady execution in federal civilian agencies like Department of State ($1.07B across CGI Federal $619.97M and AAR $449.04M), HHS ($433.94M across Agiliti Health $326.62M and DLH $107.32M), and NASA ($327.11M across Amentum $227.20M and Axiom Space $99.91M). Dominant themes include IT/facilities management, medical equipment maintenance, and aviation/space support, with 7 bullish signals driven by high outlays (e.g., Agiliti Health's $272M outlayed on $327M HHS ventilator contract). Highest-conviction bullish signal is AAR Government Services' $449M Department of State aircraft maintenance deal with $290M outlayed and low pricing risk through 2024. Key risk is high firm-fixed-price exposure in 5 contracts (e.g., Agiliti Health, DLH, Amentum), amplifying performance risks amid maturing periods ending 2024-2026; watch outlay progress and recompetes.
Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior General Federal Contracts digest from April 15, 2026.
Investment Signals(7)
- AAR Government Services Secures $449M State Aviation Maintenance with $290M Outlayed(HIGH)▲
AAR's $449.04M cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order from Department of State shows strong execution with $290M outlayed and option year three established through May 2024, signaling reliable civilian aviation revenue despite $87M subawards.
- Agiliti Health Advances $327M HHS Ventilator Maintenance with $272M Outlayed(HIGH)▲
Agiliti Health's $326.62M firm-fixed-price contract from HHS ASPR has $272M outlayed, indicating robust cash flow in medical equipment services through 2026 with potential extension to 2028 and upside to $494M.
- ABT Global Lands $279M USAID Malaria Vector Control Through 2027(MEDIUM)▲
ABT Global's $279.25M cost-plus-fixed-fee contract from USAID has $160M outlayed including $64M subawards, providing multi-year revenue visibility to 2027 with potential ceiling of $810M.
- DLH Executes $107M NIH IT Management with $86M Outlayed(MEDIUM)▲
DLH's $107.32M firm-fixed-price BPA call from NIH NHLBI has $86M outlayed over 5 years to 2026, affirming competitive win in IT facilities management.
- CGI Federal's Maturing $620M State Passport Services Nears 2024 End(MEDIUM)▲
CGI Federal's $619.97M time-and-materials delivery order from Department of State has only $191M outlayed over 6.5 years, with performance ending May 2024 and potential to $844M.
- Axiom Space's $100M NASA EVA Demo Hits $77M Outlays(MEDIUM)▲
Axiom Space's $99.91M firm-fixed-price delivery order from NASA has $77M outlayed, with 5-year term to 2028 and $72M options for space vehicle services.
- Skanska's $149M DOD Contract Lacks Execution Visibility(LOW)▲
Skanska USA Civil Northeast's $149.34M Department of Defense award provides no outlay, pricing, or annual revenue data, limiting near-term signal strength.
Risk Flags(3)
- Execution[HIGH RISK]▼
High firm-fixed-price risk in Agiliti Health $327M HHS, DLH $107M NIH, Amentum $227M NASA, Axiom Space $100M NASA, and California Dairies $71M USDA contracts, where performance pressures could impact margins through 2026-2028 ends.
- Competition[MEDIUM RISK]▼
Maturing contracts like CGI Federal $620M State (ends 2024-05-09) and AAR $449M State (ends 2024-05-31) face recompete uncertainty with no extension visibility.
- Budget[MEDIUM RISK]▼
California Dairies $71M USDA butter contract has $0 outlayed despite full obligation, signaling funding delays in short 8.5-month term starting 2026-04-13.
Opportunities(3)
- ◆
ABT Global's $279M USAID contract offers $530M in unexercised options to reach $810M ceiling through 2027.
- ◆
Agiliti Health's $327M HHS deal has $167M options to $494M and potential 2028 extension beyond 2026.
- ◆
Axiom Space's $100M NASA EVA order has $72M unexercised options to $172M through 2028.
Sector Themes(3)
- ◆
Agiliti Health's $327M ventilator/PAPR maintenance and DLH's $107M IT management for NIH show $358M HHS commitment with $358M combined outlays ($272M + $86M), emphasizing firm-fixed-price wins in health response infrastructure.
- ◆
AAR's $449M aircraft maintenance (cost-plus, $290M outlayed) and CGI Federal's $620M passport IT (time-and-materials) total $1.07B, signaling sustained civilian diplomatic support needs.
- ◆
Amentum's $227M facilities maintenance (to 2026) and Axiom Space's $100M EVA demo (to 2028, $77M outlayed) provide $327M in extended NASA obligations.
Watch List(5)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"AAR Government Services", "reason"=>"$449M State contract with $290M outlayed needs progress on remaining obligation and subawards ($87M).", "trigger"=>"outlay updates and extensions beyond 2024-05-31"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Agiliti Health Inc", "reason"=>"$327M HHS obligation with $272M outlayed; track options to $494M.", "trigger"=>"option exercises and extension to 2028-02-27"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"CGI Federal Inc", "reason"=>"$620M State passport contract ends 2024-05-09 with low $191M outlays.", "trigger"=>"recompete announcements post-2024-05-09"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Amentum Technology, Inc.", "reason"=>"$227M NASA facilities with $139M outlayed nears 2026-04-12 end.", "trigger"=>"options to $252M and performance end 2026-04-12/08-12"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"California Dairies Inc", "reason"=>"$71M USDA contract starts 2026-04-13 with $0 outlayed.", "trigger"=>"outlay initiation and completion by 2026-12-31"}
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