Contract Deobligations Alert — February 14, 2026

Lockheed Martin ($437M OSIRIS-REX) and Peraton ($327M NSROC III) secure cost-plus awards with $58M+$204M outlayed, options to $456M+$349M, signaling stable aerospace funding through 2027.

Caddell ($609M South Sudan), BL Harbert ($227M Mauritius), and AT&T ($314M telecom installs) awarded FFP contracts through 2026-2028, fully obligated base+options for diplomatic expansion.

A Square ($164M CMS IT to 2026, $159M outlayed), Global Maritek ($172M CBP vessels to 2031 potential, $117M outlayed), and ADNET ($213M NASA data to 2028) highlight $757M in options-upside for niche players.

$68M obligated (options to $158M) labor hours order for U2 mission planning through 2026 adds defense-adjacent revenue stream.

Low outlays on large FFP construction (0% on $609M Caddell/$227M BL Harbert) expose to cost overruns in intl sites (South Sudan, Mauritius) over 4-6yr periods.

Extended tenors to 2027-2031 with unexercised options ($1B+ potential) and high subawards (e.g., $202M/23 on $232M Safeguard; $63M/363 on $327M Peraton) risk delays/funding cuts.

Geopolitical exposure in Ukraine energy ($447M USAID undisclosed) and Africa embassies amid funding volatility.

Unexercised options >$1B (e.g., Global Maritek $230M to $402M; ADNET $150M to $363M; Booz Allen $90M to $158M) across 8 contracts offer 20-130% upside if exercised.

Recurring small biz set-asides (4 contracts, $765M total) in NASA/HHS/DHS signal pipeline for minority/woman-owned firms in data/IT/vessels.

State Dept post expansions (embassies + telecom) position winners for follow-ons amid diplomatic buildout.

5 contracts total $2.3B through 2027-2028, cost-plus structures with 13-54% outlays signal unwavering basic/applied research funding despite deobligations alert.

State Dept trio ($1.15B) for embassies/telecom underscores overseas expansion, FFP pricing on 4-6yr builds.

4 set-aside awards ($765M, options to $1.3B) in IT/space/health/vessels highlight access to large vehicles.

{"entity"=>"Lockheed Martin (LMT)", "reason"=>"Dual $438M NASA + $1.4M DHS wins anchor space/defense revenue to 2027.", "trigger"=>"OSIRIS-REX option exercise >$20M"}

{"entity"=>"AT&T (T)", "reason"=>"$314M State telecom order (16% outlayed) extends fed revenue visibility to 2026.", "trigger"=>"Outlay acceleration >20% YoY"}

{"entity"=>"Global Maritek Systems", "reason"=>"$172M DHS vessel maintenance (options to $402M, potential to 2031) as small biz standout.", "trigger"=>"Option funding or extension mod"}

{"entity"=>"Caddell Construction", "reason"=>"Largest bullish at $609M South Sudan embassy, 0% outlayed flags execution test.", "trigger"=>"Initial outlays or cost growth notices"}