Contract Deobligations Alert — January 19, 2026

$210M obligations to ManTech/GEO with $148M outlayed (70% progress) affirm multi-year revenue in high-demand NAICS 541512 and 561210.

$153M T&M/FFP orders to Favor Tech/Carahsoft show 65% average outlay progress through 2025-2028, bolstered by set-asides and SaaS demand.

$103M DoEd award provides steady but non-equity-linked revenue; low 1.6% outlay flags completion uncertainty.

Extended periods (2025-2028) across 4/5 contracts expose ~$140M remaining balances to budget shifts/delays.

T&M contracts (3/5, $310M) vulnerable to DHS/VA audits on rates/subawards ($34M total).

FFP structures ($150M) risk margins if costs rise; ETS low outlay signals funding cuts.

$57M combined options across ManTech/Carahsoft/ETS exercisable into 2028.

NAICS 541512 IT dominance (3/5 contracts, $267M) with set-asides positions small/specialty firms for VA/DHS follow-ons.

GEO's rapid $66M outlay on new $96M detention order supports ICE follow-ons amid border needs.

80% of value ($407M) in NAICS 541512/511210 for T&M SaaS/development to DHS/VA/HHS.

$210M split across IT (ManTech) and facilities (GEO) with high outlay velocity.

{"entity"=>"ManTech International", "reason"=>"$114M DHS IT with $7M options and $26M subawards signals subcontractor ecosystem growth.", "trigger"=>"option exercise or new USCIS orders"}

{"entity"=>"The GEO Group", "reason"=>"Rapid 69% outlay on fresh $96M ICE detention amid short 17-month window.", "trigger"=>"follow-on Seattle AOR awards"}

{"entity"=>"Carahsoft Technology", "reason"=>"$49M options in CMS Salesforce SaaS could double value to $103M by 2028.", "trigger"=>"extension beyond 2026-09"}