Contract Deobligations Alert — January 06, 2026

Raytheon ($418M) and Indra ($371M) lead $1B+ in radar replacements under full competition, aligning with DOT vision through 2030.

GD IT ($399M), Leidos ($264M+$48M), Booz Allen ($61M+$55M) secure $800M+ in cybersecurity/IT management to 2030 via cost-plus structures.

Telafource ($97M), Exceed ($43M), Human Learning ($38M) deliver $180M+ in data collection and vocational ops to 2026-27 under set-asides.

Firm fixed price on 60%+ of contracts ($1.8B) exposes winners to cost overruns, esp. construction (Walsh $106M, Whiting-Turner $64M) and radar over 5-10yr periods.

Zero outlays on top 4 awards ($1.45B, incl. Raytheon/Indra FAA) signal funding delays; 40% of contracts show $0 outlayed despite awards 2023-25.

High subawards (e.g., Leidos 208/$283M, LinQuest 73/$65M) on $1B+ IT contracts risk prime margin compression and delays.

$1.2B+ in unexercised options across IT/ATC (GD $420M upside, Leidos $720M, Raytheon $20M) position primes for 40%+ revenue expansion.

Small/set-aside wins (SSAI $256M NASA, Sysnet $44M FAA cyber) total $500M+, favoring HUBZone/SDVOSB for follow-ons in R&D/data.

Long-duration contracts to 2030-39 (Leidos DHS $983M pot., Energy Systems NASA $139M) offer stable cashflows amid fed IT/energy sustainment.

$900M+ FAA awards (radar/surveillance) to Raytheon/Indra/Sysnet underscore DOT priority for next-gen systems to 2030.

GSA/DHS/DoD IT clusters ($1.5B, 15 contracts) via cost-plus/T&M favor incumbents like GD/Leidos/Booz through 2028.

VA/GSA builds ($300M+, Walsh/Whiting-Turner/Richard Group) for hospitals/VBA highlight sustained infra spend to 2027.

{"entity"=>"RTX Corp (Raytheon)", "reason"=>"$418M FAA radar lead award with $0 outlay; largest single signal at 14% of total value.", "trigger"=>"Dec 2025 funding release or option exercise"}

{"entity"=>"Leidos Inc", "reason"=>"$312M GSA/DHS IT cluster with $1B+ pot. options, but high subawards/$0 outlays on key awards.", "trigger"=>"Q1 2026 outlays >20% obligation"}

{"entity"=>"FAA Surveillance Programs", "reason"=>"$140M+ (Regulus/Sysnet) ties to ATC theme; risks from future-dated starts.", "trigger"=>"DOT budget hearings on next-gen ATC"}