All HHS Contracts — January 23, 2026

CMS obligations total $327M (68% of stream) on enrollment/cloud services with $239M outlayed, favoring established IT players through 2026 extensions.

$125M firm-fixed non-competitive award to Elusys provides 4.7-year revenue at $17.7M outlayed, underscoring HHS preparedness priority.

$134M unexercised options across contracts (e.g., Samtek $44M ceiling, Yale $52M) could unlock 28% value uplift if triggered by 2026-2029.

Long performance periods (avg. to 2027+, NIH to 2035) expose to budget cuts/delays, with low outlay progress in 40% of contracts (e.g., Elusys 14%, NORESCO 12%).

Full/open competition in 60% of awards to non-small/nonprofits signals vulnerability to rebids post-2026.

$116M remaining obligations (24% of total) through 2026+ for IT/pharma execution.

CMS cloud/modernization focus ($38M Samtek) amid small biz set-asides positions minority IT firms for follow-ons.

Non-competitive NIH engineering renewal potential post-2035 on $30M base.

CMS captures 74% value on enrollment/cloud contracts, blending time/materials and fixed-price for predictable ~$70M+ tails.

ASPR non-compete awards signal entrenched pharma procurement amid low outlay start.

{"entity"=>"Nighthawk Biosciences", "reason"=>"$125M Elusys award = 4.7yr visibility but 14% outlay flags revenue ramp risk.", "trigger"=>"Outlays >$30M by mid-2026"}

{"entity"=>"Cognosante MVH LLC", "reason"=>"Largest $258M CMS obligation with $70M tail through 2026 extensions.", "trigger"=>"Option exercise to $259M ceiling"}

{"entity"=>"CMS Cloud Solicitations", "reason"=>"Samtek $38M modernizes CCSQ; pattern for small biz IT scale-up.", "trigger"=>"New set-aside awards >$50M"}